Many waves meet, the long interference of Crypto
The crest of each track is close again and again, and the long-term interference of Crypto is coming.

Under the interaction of macro policy and market, different fields give periodic feedback with different length.


而曾经的传统产业间互通性较低,实体经济经历着共同的系统性大周期。 科技创新所带来的信息传递高效性催生了诸多新兴产业,这些新兴产业让曾经互不相关的市场产生了联系。 


If the synergistic effect of cross-industry linkage is not intuitive enough, you must have experienced the relay of different tracks in the Internet industry. Relying on the connection of new users and demands and existing resources, the Internet industry has not yet appeared the so-called "bear market".  


When the asset trading market was hit hard, NFT took over the responsibility and promoted the demand for Ethereum, while NFT attracted the attention of Metaverse outside the circle, and the soaring usage exploded the expectation and demand for infrastructure assets. The crest of each track is close again and again, and the long-term interference of Crypto is coming.  


This article by serial entrepreneur Elad Gil, Matt Huang and Fred Ehrsam from Paradigm, provides an in-depth discussion of the big cycles in the tech and crypto industry. BlockBeats translated the text:


Once upon a time, every 8-10 years, the tech industry would experienceOne from boom to bust的周期。新的技术、平台将会出现,伴随着疯狂的投资和投机行为,只有少部分幸存下来的企业得以快速成长,而其余大多数新创业公司将会倒闭或被迫合并。这些在六七十年代的半导体领域、八十年代的个人电脑领域和九十年代的互联网领域都发生过。


从创造的市值和涌入的资金来看,下一波的浪潮都比前一波更大。



从 2000 年开始一直到现在,出现了一些奇怪的事情。风险投资的兴衰周期停止了,科技领域的周期已经被一个长达 20 年的繁荣所取代。即便是 2007 年至 2009 年的金融危机,也没有对科技型创业公司的出现或数量增长产生太大影响。


毫无疑问,技术周期性缺失的原因有很多,其中一个可能的解释是技术浪潮相互叠加。我们现在看到的是多个相互重叠的技术浪潮,而不是一项新技术长达 8-10 年的单一周期。这既增加了整体结果的大小,也平滑了任何下降周期。


例如,从 2005 年到现在,我们经历了云技术、社交、移动、SaaS、垂直型 SaaS、金融科技、人工智能和 Crypto 的重叠浪潮。所有这些领域在过去都经历过 10 年周期。有人可能会说我们现在正在经历一个大周期「聚合周期?」,它可能还会持续几年。这个周期一部分依赖于可利用资本和量化宽松政策,但在更大程度上要归功于软件在同时吞噬多个行业。新冠疫情的出现点燃了人们使用科技的热情,消费者开始使用 Instacart、DoorDash、亚马逊这样的网络平台,企业也开始采用 Zoom、Stripe、Figma 进行网上办公。


大周期的主要特征之一是缺乏衰退。科技领域急剧衰退导致的大量裁员与公司倒闭并不会发生,随着一波又一波的新技术相互叠加,上升期会一直持续下去。这种局面有好有坏,我们将在日后予以讨论。


The time between these cycles has decreased and the size of each cycle has increased. As each wave accelerates, it is likely to accelerate its successors. So for example,The number of people online has increased tenfold,同时,上网的时间与开销也不断增大,这些趋势互相影响,并进一步推动了其背后的技术浪潮。有时,由于网络或规模效应,某些事物的接受度会只增不减,尽管很大一部分人只是被浪潮推着走。



Interestingly, Crypto has experienced a steeper cycle in the past 4 years or so, which coincided with the halifing of BTC, so the sudden change in Crypto's supply and demand has also led to a market switch between BTC and fake tokens. The first Crypto cycle is actuallyBTC white paperRelease and initial mining. The second period isETH、IC0 以及新协议与新 Token 的出现。我认识的许多 Crypto 人士都认为,2021 年 Crypto 业务将会出现下行周期。



而下行周期并未出现的一个可能解释是,美国政府进行了大规模印钞与开支,现在实际上只是在给人们送钱。这既产生了货币刺激,将使多种资产发生通胀,也可能使投资者寻求 Crypto 作为一种通胀和美元贬值的对冲。


在人们看来,另一种解释是 Crypto 也出现了相互叠加的周期现象,或称 Crypto 大周期。与科技领域一样,Crypto 在 DeFi(Uniswap、Aave、Maker 等)、NFT、DAO 领域也出现了多个重叠的浪潮,不仅如此,多个有趣的 Layer 1 协议(Solana、Near、Celo、Mina 等)也在几年前开始相继推出。人们在 Crypto 与传统法币之间建立起了越来越多的桥梁,让 Crypto 的接受范围得以逐渐扩展。Crypto 一直在多样性方面不断探索,就算 Crypto 市场某处出现了下滑甚至严重暴跌(比如 NFT 行情由于某种原因遭遇了打击),它也能靠其它领域(DeFi 或 BTC)的增势抵消掉下跌所带来的损失。换句话说,随着 Crypto 不断向更多领域扩展、应用范围不断增大,一部分市场领域间的相关性会在短期内降低。


一些人认为,Crypto 在使用量和市值方面已经足够惊人,其过去那种大幅度的波动可能也会有所缓和。就算 Crypto 的 2.4 万亿市值跌掉一半,只剩下 1.2 万亿美元,但它仍还有超过 1 万亿美元的市值,而且由于其规模庞大且用途广泛,Crypto 市场中依然有很多活跃买家。


市值的可持续性进一步巩固了 Crypto 的反身性。即便 2021 年 Crypto 市值下跌了 50%,它仍有 1 万亿美元以上的市值,说明它一时半会儿还不会消失。这也促使越来越多的参与者不断涌入市场,买家和用户的数量也随之增加,并有可能出现更强的回弹。同样,在市场不出现暴跌的情况下,人才也会陆续进入其中。在 2000 至 2001 年,科技行业出现了大规模的裁员,当时许多被辞退的员工最终都没有再回到这一领域。2017 年,随着下行周期的到来,Crypto 市场的人才增速也相应放缓。直到最近,Crypto 市值的可持续性逐渐转好,这才吸引了更多技术型人才与毕业生的加入,他们的到来也会推动 Crypto 市场迈入下一轮创新浪潮。



观察明年 Crypto 是否会随着急剧下滑而重新出现周期性行为,或者我们现在是否陷入了一个大周期当中,将会是一件趣事。


这其中最大的干扰因素便是政府正在进行的大规模印钞与开支。从目前的情况来看,供应链和能源问题依然层出不穷,各行各业定价也在不断上升,许多人开始担心市场会出现短期甚至长期的通货膨胀或「滞胀」[2]。BTC 诞生的一部分原因就是为了应对大规模的金融危机与美国的货币政策。所以人们可能会说,Crypto 一开始被创造出来的原因之一便是为了给我们目前所处的经济环境增添一层保护 [3]。


感谢 Matt Huang、Fred Ehrsam 和 Curtis Spencer 对本文的评论。


注释

[1] 例如,科技领域经济增长的成因之一就可以由一些因素来加以解释,其中就包括资本需要不断探索出高收益的增长路径,以此应对因量化宽松政策而造成的低利率甚至无利率的市场环境。因此,由于在其他地方赚不到钱,资金便都慢慢流向了科技领域。

[2] 滞胀往往会带来通货膨胀率的不断上升,因此公司只能通过提高定价来缓冲其带来的影响。然而,高昂的价格也必然会引发需求的严重下滑,并最终导致经济停滞。

[3] Therefore, the reason why people choose Crypto and the reason why Crypto can recover quickly from the down cycle are all because they want to "hedge the American macro economy".  


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律动 BlockBeats 提醒,根据银保监会等五部门于 2018 年 8 月发布《关于防范以「虚拟货币」「区块链」名义进行非法集资的风险提示》的文件,请广大公众理性看待区块链,不要盲目相信天花乱坠的承诺,树立正确的货币观念和投资理念,切实提高风险意识;对发现的违法犯罪线索,可积极向有关部门举报反映。
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