原文作者： 匹马， Continue Capital联合创始人
10 月 14 日， Continue Capital 联合创始人匹马在个人社交媒体发表长文，对于当前市场热议的 Spell、Alcx 等协议进行分析。现将匹马观点整理如下：
Look at the Spell. The first place I felt was Alcx. I have analyzed Alcx for a long time, so I was not surprised at first sight when I saw the Spell. However, the development path is very different, so I mainly want to see some reasons for the difference between the two situations.
First of all, both of them are the application of future cash flow discount, that is, I advance the future income to use now, still can refer to my previous example of Alcx used to pay electricity or buy a car.
What's the difference? First of all, different target markets lead to different entry points.Spell targeted lock-in interest-bearing assets, while Alcx targeted assets such as Dai. What does it mean? If you want to save Dai in yVault to earn interest (the key is that Dai can also be used anywhere else), now you can earn interest in Alcx, and you can mortgage yDai, borrow alUSD, and change alUSD into USDT to buy a car and pay the electricity bill. An argument for Staking is an interest-generating asset that is locked up, like xSushi, stETH, and of course yUSDT. If I own Sushi and generate xSushi, It has no purpose other than collecting Sushi transaction fees (Apy is about 10%), but with Spell, I can mortgage xSushi, lend MIM (u) in a certain proportion, and change MIM into USDC stablecoin through Crv
I can go somewhere else, and all of a sudden I've released a lot of locked-in interest-earning assets, but Dai of Alcx is not a locked-in asset, and if there are Dai, there are too many places to go, so Spell has a good entry point.
Asset under Spell
Alcx collateral assets
Then there is the ecological scene.The moat of any stablecoin is an ecological scene, that is, your stablecoin needs to be recognized and used by others. What determines your social APP is not yourself, but the environment you are in, and the social APP that is used by all the identity relationships around you. Spell expanded the ecosystem of N with its strong ability to form alliances, just like AC's aggressive cooperation in the past. In a very short time and with strong execution, THE share of MIM reached 1.5 billion DOLLARS like a storm. Of course, the coin circle is now the main use of mining, the main destination of MIM is also in the Crv pool, the highest rate of return is about 24%, followed by stablecoin mining on Arbitrum (MIM-USDC-USDT), Apy 35%.
Crv pool depth
ARB main net pool yield
What about stablecoin circulations for other projects? Alcx is mainly alUSD, currently 240 million (of course, Alcx will soon launch 2.0, and there will be different improvements). We can also compare UST under Luna, 2.7 billion; Fxs, $400 million in FRAX, don't say, look at the curve of FRAX is perfect, come on Fxs.
Third, market capitalization.I frankly point out, there is no DeFi 2.0 3.0, the difference is that there is no retail secondary market to make money, I have not seen a cowboy community is not suddenly rich community. You will find that every once in a while, there will be a trend against VC, the recent so-called DeFi 2.0, many are not vc participation by the community a little bit of development, after all, this project community to enjoy the dividend is really huge, the mass foundation is solid, the bottom of the coin circle up the original project is too big, Of course, as any project reaches a certain stage of development, it will encounter different bottlenecks, and this is the time to test the ability and nature of the team, especially the anonymous team. The top FDV of Alcx online is as high as 4.7 billion, which is similar to many DeFi agency projects, which are often estimated at 2 billion, 3 billion, how to play this.
And the Spell went up 50 times? 100 times? FDV is also 3.2 billion yuan. The huge growth dividend is transferred to the community, and a lot of cooperation naturally takes place. Say more 1, all 21 years, unexpectedly still have a person to take circulation dish rather than whole dish FDV say a thing, want self-deception to when? DeFi has a clear profit valuation model. If you don't pay attention to it, it doesn't mean the market doesn't.
And finally, don't go to the head,I looked at Spell's token allocation, and $21 billion would destroy $8.7 billion, which was 30% of the team and unlocked 50% in the first year, and the second-pool bonus for ETH Spell was 75% in the first year. My first thought was: Is this a one-year job? When we participate in anonymous projects, we must be more aware of the risks. These are the dishes, how to cook the dishes is up to you.
Note: This article is for the exchange of views only, not investment advice.
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